David McKay writes that the most important question ahead of platinum industry wage talks due to kick off this month is whether the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (Amcu) has the stomach for another strike?  

His view is that there’s every likelihood Joseph Mathunjwa, the increasingly incalculable president of Amcu, having lost some of his normal swagger in the union, will be disposed to winning it back by waging a successful strike.  It is also thought that as the majority union in the sector, Amcu will be supported by the courts in potential industrial action, whereas it was not so supported as the minority union in the recent five-month gold strike at Sibanye-Stillwater.  The outcome of that strike was a fairly humbling return to work with Amcu accepting the wage offer put to other unions before the strike started in November.  The fear is that Mathunjwa might be disposed to fight back, driven by emotion and concern for his position.  So, the stakes are as high as ever with pressure on Sibanye to start generating the cash and reducing debt and with pressure on Mathunjwa at Amcu which has suffered a string of bad setbacks this year at the hands of Sibanye.  Other companies will negotiating platinum wages this year, including Anglo American Platinum (Amplats) and Impala Platinum (Implats).  The view of Amplats CEO, Chris Griffith, is that the company will most likely settle at a percentage above inflation.

• Read David McKay’s opinion piece in full at Miningmx

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