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Bloomberg reports that according to the chief actuary at Discovery, as many as four out of five South Africans may have contracted the coronavirus, indicating that the country may be one of the world’s hardest-hit nations by the disease.
Emile Stipp based his calculations on the country’s case-fatality rate and excess deaths, a measure of the number of fatalities compared with an historical average. They are thought to provide a more accurate picture of the impact of the pandemic than the official toll. The infection rate of between 70% and 80%, as estimated by Stipp, is high by global standards and could push SA close to so-called herd immunity, estimated at between 80% and 90% by the Infectious Diseases Society of America. Still, it’s possible that the delta variant of the virus could reinfect those who contracted other strains. Stipp based his assessment on the assumption that 90% of excess deaths reported by the SA Medical Research Council (SAMRC) were due to Covid-19. SAMRC estimates SA’s excess death number at 229,850 during the pandemic, compared with an official Covid-19 death toll of 77,993. The country’s case fatality rate is 3%.
- Read the full original of the report in the above regard by Antony Sguazzin at Fin24
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